What advice would you give students today, what should they focus on?
Colony: I would say “Go to a business school”. The best you can do today, you have to build a deep technology background but at the same time go to a business school. Because a pure technologist in the future will not be paid very well, will be available in India or China. But if you can do both you still got excellent chances in Europe or the United States. I have talked to a woman who became Senior Innovation Officer in a bank. Now that will be an important job in the future.
She is combining her knowledge of the customers of the bank, the business of the bank and IT bringing those together. So she is really doing BT. That balance is the advice I would give to students today. That is going to be a very potent combination which will be very highly paid. So there is a future in IT in Europe and the United States for young people. But it is not for proper Java programmers and the like. Most of these jobs will go to China or elsewhere like Brazil or Russia.
How do you see the European software industry compared to the American software industry?
Colony: I think SAP has done a terrific job, a very good job. Software AG has done a good job. I would say – this is the ugly American speaking – but there is the element of slowness in these companies. We used to have a couple of great companies just 20 years ago like Nextor but they just couldn’t keep up the pace. Today there is a huge challenge for the software vendors because they rely on the licensed software business. That whole model is under attack in the near future. I believe it is not out of the question that you are going to see large accounting systems paid for by advertising. That will definitely be a challenge for SAP or Oracle.
So for the next five years the important question will be, how fast the software vendors especially in Europe can run. Can they adjust? I think that during the next five years there will be greater change in the software business than in the last ten years. There is absolutely no doubt about that.
Do you believe that the American companies will run faster?
Colony: So far that has usually been the case. However as I said SAP has done a good job. They have really been very resilient. But now they are going to get their true test. But by the way, it is not going to be easy for Oracle or Microsoft either. The question is, how fast can you morph? You know Charles Darwin? Many people quote him wrong by claiming he had said that the strongest will survive. It is not the strongest but those who can adapt best.
How do you see open source in that context. Especially considering the element of cooperation?
Colony: It is also an adaptation. It is almost fast evolution. The way you collaborate in an open source environment is something which is totally natural for the Y-Generation. There is a huge difference if you compare it to the behaviour of Generation X or the generations before that. Collaboration is what Facebook or MySpace are all about – the Y-Generation simply lives and breathes that. And they have the tools to do that. There is probably some stupid word I can make up like ‘coopetition’ – but it is clear that probably the difference in competitiveness will be quite slight in the future. It may come down to how well you understand your customer. Look at Apple what is Apple’s greatest strength? Apple does not do any market research. They are serving a customer of one: Steve Jobs. But that is not a lesson for anyone – because he is just a one off, that’s a freak of nature. And it will probably never happen again.
